Quantifying the probability of a recession in selected Central and Eastern European countries

The COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously affected most economic sectors and has already caused severe worldwide social and economic damage. In response, authorities introduced social distancing measures, with an adverse impact on economic activity. If policymakers were aware of the existing vulnerabilities, including those derived from the positioning on the business cycle, resilience could have been increased. The aim of this article is to describe various methods of dating business cycles in several Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Furthermore, a Probit model regarding the probability of a recession is estimated, confirming the adverse effects of the pandemic, in contrast with a brightening outlook given vaccination campaigns and the E.U. recovery package. However, in case of the Romanian economy, an in-sample estimation showed a high probability of negative growth rates even in a pre-pandemic world, due to the high macroeconomic imbalances. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Quantifying the probability of a recession in selected Central and Eastern European countries

The COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously affected most economic sectors and has already caused severe worldwide social and economic damage. In response, authorities introduced social distancing measures, with an adverse impact on economic activity. If policymakers were aware of the existing vulnerabilities, including those derived from the positioning on the business cycle, resilience could have been increased. The aim of this article is to describe various methods of dating business cycles in several Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Furthermore, a Probit model regarding the probability of a recession is estimated, confirming the adverse effects of the pandemic, in contrast with a brightening outlook given vaccination campaigns and the E.U. recovery package. However, in case of the Romanian economy, an in-sample estimation showed a high probability of negative growth rates even in a pre-pandemic world, due to the high macroeconomic imbalances.

Modifications of the therapeutic setting during the Covid-19 pandemic: thoughts based on the Greek experience with latency children and adolescents

The paper reflects on the authors’ observations regarding the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic within the context of child and adolescent psychoanalytic psychotherapy in Greece. The specific conditions in Greece during the first general lockdown are described, and the necessary modifications to the therapeutic framework with latency children and adolescents are discussed. During the lockdown, the authors continued to meet with their patients online, a framework that had both advantages and limitations. The authors share their thoughts about the ways they tried to keep the connection with their patients alive, in the face of the first wave of the coronavirus crisis. © 2021 Association of Child Psychotherapists.